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基于MaxEnt模型的镇海林蛙种群潜在地理适宜性评价

张凯龙,杨坤,沃钰斌,童浩杰,金园庭*   

  1. (中国计量大学生命科学学院, 杭州 310018)
  • 出版日期:2018-01-10 发布日期:2018-01-10

Suitability evaluation of potential geographic distribution forRana zhenhaiensis based on MaxEnt.

ZHANG Kai-long, YANG Kun, WO Yu-bin, TONG Hao-jie, JIN Yuan-ting*#br#   

  1. (College of Life Sciences, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China).
  • Online:2018-01-10 Published:2018-01-10

摘要: 镇海林蛙(Rana zhenhaiensis)为新命名的中国特有种,因缺少调查研究,其种群潜在的生态地理分布并不清楚。本文通过实地调查与文献查阅,收集到35个镇海林蛙分布地点,引入与以上地点对应的WorldClim数据库1950—2000年的20个生物与环境变量,运用MaxEnt生态位模型对镇海林蛙的潜在分布区进行预测。结果表明:镇海林蛙适生概率为0.5~1.0的适宜栖息地主要分布在浙江、江苏、上海、安徽、湖南、湖北东部、江西中部、西部以及北部、福建沿海地区、天津西部等地,并且还零散分布于四川、重庆、山东、河北、广西、广东等地,适生概率为0.09~0.5的相对适宜栖息地主要在北京、山东、河南、重庆、贵州、广西、福建、广东、辽宁南部、天津东部、河北南部、陕西南部、四川东部、湖北西部、湖南南部、江西西北部以及南部、台湾北部等地区分布。预测模型取得的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值均为0.993,表明本研究获得的预测模型准确度很高,结果可信。MaxEnt模型的Jackknife检验表明,各环境变量中对模型的贡献度有差异,最暖季度降水量(贡献率为44.6%)和温度季节性变化标准差(贡献率为20.4%)是影响镇海林蛙潜在分布的主要因素。

关键词: 旅游景区, 低碳行为, 冗余分析, 驱动机制, 世界遗产地

Abstract: Rana zhenhaiensis is a newly named species endemic to China; its potential geographic distribution is still unclear due to lack of field investigation. Thirtyfive distribution localities ofR. zhenhaiensiswere collected from field investigations and literatures. The MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to predict the potential distribution of R. zhenhaiensis by importing corresponding data of 20 biological and environmental variables downloaded from WorldClim database between 1950 and 2000 corresponding to the above 35 localities. The predicted habitats with suitability probabilities of 0.5-1.0 forR. zhenhaiensis mainly included Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hunan, eastern Hubei, central, western and northern parts of Jiangxi, coastal regions of Fujian, western Tianjin, and several other parts in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shandong, Hebei, Guangxi and Guangdong. Besides, Beijing, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, southern Liaoning, eastern Tianjin, southern Hebei, southern Shanxi, eastern Sichuan, western Hubei, southern Hunan, northern and southwestern parts of Jiangxi as well as northern Taiwan were relatively lower suitable habitats (suitability probabilities, 0.09-0.5) forR. zhenhaiensis. The average AUC values for both training and test data predicted by MaxEnt were 0.993, indicating high accuracy and reliability of our predicted model. Jackknife test in MaxEnt ecological niche model showed that the contributions of different environmental variables to models were different, and precipitation in the warmest quarter (contribution rate, 44.6%) and standard deviation of temperature seasonal change (contribution rate, 20.4%) were the primary factors that affect the distribution ofR. zhenhaiensis.

Key words: low-carbon behavior, driving mechanism, scenic spot, World Heritage Site., redundancy analysis (RDA)