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• 方法与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

乌冈栎的潜在分布模拟及分析

李颖1,2,姜小龙2*,邓敏2,李谦盛1*#br#   

  1. (1上海应用技术大学, 生态技术与工程学院, 上海 201418; 2中国科学院上海辰山植物科学研究中心/上海辰山植物园, 上海 201602)
  • 出版日期:2017-10-10 发布日期:2017-10-10

Potential distribution modeling and analysis of Quercus phillyraeoides.

LI Ying1,2, JIANG Xiao-long2*, DENG Min2, LI Qian-sheng1*#br#   

  1. (1The Ecological Technique and Engineering College, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, China; 2Shanghai Chenshan Plant Science Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Shanghai Chenshan Botanical Garden, Shanghai 201602, China).
  • Online:2017-10-10 Published:2017-10-10

摘要: 了解物种的分布特征和动态,对生物多样性保护和恢复具有重要意义。乌冈栎 (Quercus phillyraeoides) 广布东亚亚热带,是常绿阔叶林的重要组成树种,具有重要生态功能和经济价值。本研究根据乌冈栎134个分布点和9个环境变量,用MaxEnt预测、分析其在当前 (1950—2000年) 和未来 (2060—2080年) 气候下的潜在分布格局。综合利用百分比贡献率、置换重要值和刀切法检验气候因子对乌冈栎分布的影响。结果表明:当前潜在分布区与已知分布记录有很好的对应,最适宜分布区涵盖了中国东部、中国西南部及日本南部,占总适宜区的29.9%;最暖季度降水量和最暖月最高温对乌冈栎的潜在分布影响最大;未来随着二氧化碳浓度逐渐升高,乌冈栎的潜在适宜分布区面积将逐渐减少,高度适宜区将锐减,特别东部沿海适宜区将逐渐丧失。本研究阐明了未来气候变化对乌冈栎潜在分布的影响,可为东亚常绿阔叶林生态系统的保护和恢复提供基础资料。

关键词: 黄帚橐吾, 合子前生殖隔离, 箭叶橐吾, 花粉萌发, 花粉-柱头亲和性

Abstract: Understanding the distribution characteristics and dynamics of the regional keystone species is important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem recovery. Quercus phillyraeoides is a widespread woody species in East Asia subtropics evergreen broadleaved forest with important ecological functions and economic values. In this study, the current (1950-2000) and future (2060-2080) potential distribution patterns were analyzed using MaxEnt based on the 134 distribution sites of Q. phillyraeoides and 9 environmental variables. We also tested the effects of climate variables on the potential distributions of Q. phillyraeoides using percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test. The current potential distribution of Q. phillyraeoides is mostly overlapped with its natural distribution. The most suitable areas are mainly located in East China, Southwest China and Japan. The precipitation in the warmest quarter and the maximum temperature of the warmest month are the two key factors of the potential distributions of Q. phillyraeoides. Its suitable distribution areas will decrease sharply when CO2 concentration increases in future, especially those located in southeast coastal areas. The results could provide important information on future biodiversity conservation and ecosystem recovery of the evergreen broad-leaved forest under the background of global climate change.

Key words: pollen germination, L. sagitta, prezygotic reproductive isolation, Ligularia virgaurea, pollen-stigma of compatibility