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• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

入侵植物银毛龙葵在中国的适生区预测与早期监测预警

王瑞1,万方浩1,2*   

  1. 1中国农业科学院植物保护研究所/植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室, 北京 100193; 2青岛农业大学农学与植物保护学院, 山东青岛 266109)
  • 出版日期:2016-07-10 发布日期:2016-07-10

Predicting the potential invasive distribution and earlywarning monitoring management of Solanum elaeagnifolium in China.

WANG Ru1, WAN Fang-hao1,2*   

  1. (1State Key Laboratory for Biology and Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China; 2School of Agronomy and Plant Protection, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, Shandong, China).
  • Online:2016-07-10 Published:2016-07-10

摘要: 银毛龙葵(Solanum elaeagnifolium)是一种全球广泛分布的恶性杂草,已被列入中国进境检疫性有害生物名单。银毛龙葵已于2012年入侵中国并呈扩散蔓延趋势,明确其传入途径和适生区对制定早期监测预警具有重要意义。本研究首先通过银毛龙葵在全球的扩散动态分析明确了其在全球跨区域扩散的驱动力与传入中国的主要途径,进而利用其全球已知分布构建Maxent生态位模型模拟其环境适应梯度并把模拟的最优环境生态位投影到中国预测其潜在的适生区域。结果表明:除东北三省、内蒙古、青海、新疆天山山脉以北、河北北部地区以外的区域都是其适生区,其中高风险区主要集中在东部和南部沿海、西南边境和新疆南疆的部分地区;针对银毛龙葵在中国广阔的适生区以及繁殖能力强、繁殖体易于随交通工具、农事活动、进口粮谷和饲料等传入和扩散的特性,其在中国即将进入一个快速扩散阶段;建议对新入侵的地区采取早期监测预警与根除措施,加大适生区内进口货物接受港口、机场、进口货物中转站、加工厂等极易传入区域的监测力度,以预防其再次入侵,控制其在中国的进一步扩散。

Abstract: Solanum elaeagnifolium is a worldwide notorious weed and has been declared a harmful quarantine weed in China. Since its first recorded occurrence in China in 2012, the proliferation of this weed has rapidly increased. To monitor and control further introduction of this pest and effectively impede its secondary spread, it is necessary to establish earlywarning monitoring program by accessing the risks of its introduction and by predicting its potential dissemination in China. The introduction of S. elaeagnifolium from North America to Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and South America indicated that commodity imports or human activities originating in North America were the sources of the seeds of this plant, which led to its invasion and global spread. The potential distribution was predicted by application of Maxent ecological niche model on the basis of its global known occurrences. Following evaluation of the model’s accuracy, its high predictability was selected and projected onto the landscape of China. With the exception of three provinces of northeast China (Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin), Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, northern parts of Xinjiang and Hebei, most areas in China were found to foster the survival of S. elaeagnifolium. Because of its high reproductive capability, as well as its diverse invasion and dispersal mechanisms and the huge area for potential distribution, this species may invade additional locales areas and spread faster in the future. To prevent further invasion and spread of S. elaeagnifolium, it is recommended that an eradication program should be adopted in the newly invaded areas. In addition, monitoring programs should be applied in potentially vulnerable regions, particularly in coastal harbors, airports, transfer stations and processing factories of imported cereal grains or fodder crops, which are highly vulnerable to contamination by S. elaeagnifolium.