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华南地区温度变化及其对登革热传播时间的影响

杜尧东1**,吴晓绚2,王华1   

  1. (1广东省气候中心, 广州 510080; 2广州市气候与农业气象中心, 广州 511430)
  • 出版日期:2015-11-10 发布日期:2015-11-10

Change in temperature in South China and its impact on the potential epidemic duration of dengue fever.

DU Yao-dong1**, WU Xiao-xuan2, WANG Hua1   

  1. (1Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080, China; 2Climate & Agricultural Meteorological Center of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 511430, China)
  • Online:2015-11-10 Published:2015-11-10

摘要:

根据华南地区110个气象站1961—2012年的逐日气温资料,以及RegCM4区域气候模式RCP情景下未来逐日气温预估数据,采用Ross-Macdonald疾病传播动力学模型、线性趋势分析、累积距平、五日滑动平均等方法和ArcGIS技术,研究了华南地区温度变化及其对登革热传播时间的影响。结果表明:21 ℃可作为适宜登革热传播的下限温度指标,1961—2012年华南地区年平均气温以0.14 ℃·10 a-1的速率显著上升,1997年发生了突变;与1981—2010年平均值相比,2020s、2050s和2080s华南地区温度增幅在RCP4.5情景下分别为0.8、1.3和1.7 ℃,RCP8.5情景下分别为0.9、1.7和2.9 ℃;气温突变后(1997—2012年)全年适于登革热传播的日数、终年流行区面积分别较突变前(1961—1996年)增加了10 d和408 km2;与1997—2012年平均值相比,2020s、2050s和2080s全年适于登革热传播的日数在RCP4.5情景下分别增加了10、15和20 d,RCP8.5情景下分别增加了15、25和40 d,终年流行区面积在RCP4.5情景下分别增加了3962、5436和8260 km2,RCP8.5情景下分别增加了4536、8780和20680 km2。
 

关键词: 城市控规, 控制性指标, 城市热岛效应, 杭州

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature data of 110 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012, and future projection by the RegCM4 regional climate model under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios, change in temperature in South China and its impact on the potential transmission duration of dengue fever were studied by using the methods of RossMacdonald transmission dynamical model of diseases, linear regression, accumulative anomaly and ArcGIS. The results showed that 21 ℃ could be used as the minimum temperature suitable for dengue fever transmission. The annual mean air temperature had increased significantly by 0.14 ℃ per decade during the past 52 years, and an abrupt change in annual mean air temperature happened in 1997. Compared to the 30year average in the period of 1981-2010, annual mean temperatures in South China in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s will likely increase by 0.8, 1.3 and 1.7 ℃ under RCP4.5 scenario, and 0.9, 1.7 and 2.9 ℃ under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The annual mean days suitable for dengue fever transmission and area of year-round epidemic zone increased by 10 days and 408 km2 during the period of 1997-2012 compared to those during the period of 1961-1996. Compared to the average in the period of 1997-2012, the annual mean days suitable for dengue fever transmission in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s will likely increase by 10, 15 and 20 days under RCP4.5 scenario, and 15, 25 and 40 days under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, and the areas of year-round epidemic zone will likely correspondingly increase by 3962, 5436 and 8260 km2 under RCP4.5 scenario, and 4536, 8780 and 20680 km2 under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.
 

Key words: regulation index, urban regulatory planning, Hangzhou, urban heat island effect