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1960—2011年陕西省年内降水分配非均匀性特征及预测

刘文莉,张明军**,王圣杰,汪宝龙,李效收,马雪宁   

  1. (西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070)
  • 出版日期:2013-07-10 发布日期:2013-07-10

Intra-annual inhomogeneity of precipitation and its prediction in Shaanxi Province of Northwest China in 1960-2011.

LIU Wen-li, ZHANG Ming-jun**, WANG Sheng-jie, WANG Bao-long, LI Xiao-shou, MA Xue-ning   

  1. (College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China)
  • Online:2013-07-10 Published:2013-07-10

摘要:

根据陕西省19个气象站点1960—2011年逐日降水资料,利用反距离加权插值、气候趋势系数、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析、相关分析、合成分析和R/S分析等方法对陕西省年内降水集中度和集中期变化特征及其未来变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:1960—2011年,陕西省年内降水集中度为0.44~0.66,总的分布特征是南北高、中部低,而年内降水集中期变化于18.32~22.37旬,地域差异较小;年内降水集中度呈增加趋势,而年内降水集中期呈提前趋势,且二者的变化趋势均存在明显的区域差异;年内降水集中度在1974年发生减小突变,而年内降水集中期在1962年发生推后突变;年内降水集中度和集中期的变化并没有一个固定周期,而是大、中、小多种周期尺度相互嵌套,具有较强的时频局部特征;年降水量与年内降水集中度在全省表现出一致的正相关,而与年内降水集中期除在陕北的横山呈微弱的负相关外,在其他地区均呈正相关;多水年与少水年降水集中度的空间分布均呈南北高、中间低的特征,而多水年和少水年的降水集中期空间分布差异较大;年内降水集中度和集中期的未来变化趋势将与过去52年的变化趋势保持一致。
 

关键词: 碳储量, 生物量, 凋落物, 红树林, 净初级生产力

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 19 stations in Shaanxi Province during 1960-2011, and by using the methods of inverse distance weighted interpolation, climate tendency coefficient, MK mutations inspection, Morlet wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, synthetic analysis, and R/S analysis, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of intraannual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period and their variation tendency in the Province. In 1960-2011, the intraannual precipitation concentration degree in the Province ranged from 0.44 to 0.66, and presented the spatial distribution characteristics of being higher in the south and north but lower in the middle part. The intraannual precipitation concentration period ranged from 18.32-22.37 ten days, and showed comparatively small regional difference. The intraannual precipitation concentration degree presented an increasing trend, while the intra-annual precipitation concentration period displayed an advanced tendency. The variation trends of the intra-precipitation concentration degree and concentration period all existed obvious regional differences. A decreasing abrupt variation in the intraannual precipitation concentration degree occurred in 1974, while the postponed abrupt variation of the intra-annual precipitation concentration period happened in 1962. The variations of the intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period did not have a fixed cycle, but various cycle scales nested each other, showing stronger partial characteristics of time and frequency. In the whole province, the annual precipitation was positively correlated with intra-annual precipitation concentration degree, and also, positively correlated with intra-annual precipitation concentration period except in Hengshan of northern Shaanxi. Both in waterish and in water deficient years, the spatial distribution of intra-annual precipitation concentration degree displayed the characteristics of being higher in the south and north but lower in the middle part, while the spatial distribution of intra-annual precipitation concentration period had a greater difference. The variation tendency of the intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period in the future would keep the same with that in the past 52 years.

Key words: carbon stock, net primary productivity,