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长江流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征

王琼,张明军**,潘淑坤,马雪宁,李菲,刘文莉   

  1. (西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070)
  • 出版日期:2013-05-10 发布日期:2013-05-10

Spatiotemporal variation patterns of potential evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River basin of China.

WANG Qiong, ZHANG Ming-jun**, PAN Shu-kun, MA Xue-ning, LI Fei, LIU Wen-li   

  1. (College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China)
  • Online:2013-05-10 Published:2013-05-10

摘要: 根据1961—2011年长江流域116个气象站点的逐日气象资料,应用Penman-Monteith法计算该流域的潜在蒸散量,在此基础上使用反距离加权(IDW)插值、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S趋势分析等方法对该流域潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:近51年来长江流域潜在蒸散量年际变化倾向率为-0.34 mm·a-1,空间分布上表现为由西向东先减小后增大的趋势;从潜在蒸散量的季节变化来看,除秋季增加趋势比较明显外,其他各季均表现为不同程度的减小趋势,总体表现为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;通过MK突变检验和小波分析发现,全年潜在蒸散量的突变发生在1980年前后,年潜在蒸散量出现了准12年左右的第一主周期和准4年左右的第二主周期;R/S分析表明,除了降水量之外,其他气候因子与潜在蒸散量的变化都与过去保持持续的趋势一致性。

关键词: 水文变化指标, 生态水文, 水情变化, 三峡水库, 荆南三口

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data from 116 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin of China in 1961-2011, and by using the Penman-Monteith method recommended by the FAO, this paper calculated the potential evapotranspiration in the basin. In the meantime, the methods of inverse distanceweighted interpolation, MannKendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and rescaled range analysis were adopted to study the spatiotemporal variation patterns of the potential evapotranspiration. In recent 51 years, the inter-annual change tendency rate of the potential evapotranspiration in the whole basin was -0.34 mm·a-1. Spatially, the potential evapotranspiration had an increased  trend  after an initial decrease from west to east. Temporally, the potential evapotranspiration presented an obvious increasing trend in autumn, but a decreasing trend in spring, summer, and winter, with an overall tendency of summer > autumn > spring > winter. The M-K mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the yearly potential evapotranspiration mutation happened around 1980, and the departure sequence vibration of the potential evapotranspiration frequency was primary quasi 12 years and secondary quasi 4 years. The rescaled range analysis showed that except precipitation, all the test climate factors had the same variation trend with the potential evapotranspiration as that in the past.

Key words: indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA), eco-hydrology, change of water regime, the Three Gorges Reservoir, three outfalls of Chingjiang River.