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生态学杂志 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (07): 1542-1550.

• 综述与专论 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业非点源污染模拟不确定性研究进展

廖谦,沈珍瑶   

  1. 北京师范大学环境学院, 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室, 北京 100875
  • 出版日期:2011-07-08 发布日期:2011-07-08

Uncertainties in agricultural non-point source pollution simulation: Research progress.

LIAO Qian, SHEN Zhen-yao**   

  1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2011-07-08 Published:2011-07-08

摘要: 随着点源污染控制水平的提高,非点源污染问题日益突出。农业非点源污染由于具有涉及范围广、控制难度大、模拟过程不确定因素多等特点,已成为当前水环境污染防治研究的热点与难点。本文围绕农业非点源污染模拟的不确定性问题,介绍了国内外常用的农业非点源污染模型及其不确定性来源,着重讨论了模型结构、参数和输入信息不确定性的研究方法及其应用进展|提出了今后的研究趋势,指出定量分析非点源污染的不确定性,获取影响非点源污染负荷的关键因子,可以有针对性地进行非点源污染的预防和管理,对于提高非点源污染研究水平和制定有效的污染防治措施均具有重要意义。

关键词: 杨树, 新品种, 引进, 优选

Abstract: With the improvement of the standards in point-source pollution control, the issues of non-point source (NPS) pollution become increasingly prominent. Agricultural NPS pollution, due to its wide coverage, difficulty to control, and large amounts of uncertainties in simulation, has become a hot spot in recent studies of water environment pollution control. Aiming at the uncertainties in agricultural NPS pollution simulation, this paper introduced the commonly used agricultural NPS pollution models and their uncertainty sources, with the focus on the research methods of model structure, related parameters, and input uncertainties as well as the advances in the applications of NPS pollution uncertainty research. It was suggested that in future studies, more attention should be paid on the quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of NPS pollution and on the key factors affecting the simulation of NPS pollution load, which could help to the prevention and management of agricultural NPS pollution, the improvement of related researches, and the formulation of effective measures for agricultural NPS pollution control.

Key words: Poplars, New clones, Introduction, Selection