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生态学杂志 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 2069-2075.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

华东地区热量资源的变化特征、趋势预估及农业适应对策

李军1**;陈惠2;陈艳春3;黄敬峰4;张皓1;杨太明5;高苹6   

  1. 1上海市气候中心/SMB上海 200030;2福建省气象科学研究所福州 350001; 3山东省气候中心| 济南 250031; 4浙江大学农业遥感与信息技术研究所杭州 310029; 5安徽省气象科学研究所合肥 230006; 6江苏省气象科学研究所,南京 210008
  • 出版日期:2009-11-10 发布日期:2009-11-10

Thermal resources change characteristics, its trend prediction, and agricultural adaptation countermeasures in East China.

LI Jun1|CHEN-Hui2|CHEN Yan-chun3|HUANG Jing-feng4|ZHANG Hao1 ;YA
NG Tai-ming5;GAO Ping6   

  1. 1Shanghai Climate Center/SMB, Shanghai 200030, China;2Institute ofFujian Meteorology, Fuzhou 350001, China;3Shandong Climate Center, Ji’nan 250031, China;4Institute of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Information Application, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;5Institute of Anhui Meteorology, Hefei 230006, China;6Institute of Jiangsu Meteorology,Nanjing 210008, China
  • Online:2009-11-10 Published:2009-11-10

摘要: 根据华东地区1961—2004年27个气象站日平均气温资料,研究了华东地区>0 ℃初终日期、持续日数、积温的变化特征和变化趋势。结果表明:华东地区>0 ℃积温和持续日数分别增加了5.18~9.53 ℃·d·a-1和0.22~0.60 d·a-1,>0 ℃初日提前了0.22~0.46 d·a-1,>0 ℃终日推迟了001~014 d·a-1(福建省外)。年平均气温每升高1 ℃,>0 ℃积温增加285~402 ℃·d,持续日数增加7~18 d。各季节>0 ℃积温呈增加趋势,而山东省夏季气温呈减少趋势。到2070年华东地区>0 ℃积温为6831.4~8585.6 ℃·d,增幅为283.5~1803.8 ℃·d;除山东省外,华东其余省市全年日平均气温稳定在0 ℃以上。为适应华东地区热量资源的变化,农业上应进一步调整作物品种结构、适当提高复种指数、加强病虫草害监测预测和提高农业技术水平等。

关键词: 化感物质, 酚酸, 抑草效应, 正交旋转回归设计

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2004 mean daily air temperature data from 27 weatherstations in East China, the change characteristics and trends of the beginning
and ending dates, duration, and accumulative temperature of daily temperature > 0 ℃ in this area were studied. In the study area, the > 0 ℃ accumulative tempe
rature and its duration were increased by 5.18-9.53 ℃·d·a-1 and 0.22-0.60 d·a-1, respectively. The beginning date of > 0 ℃ was advanced 0.22-0.46 d·a1, and the ending date was postponed 0.01-0.14 d·a-1 (except for Fujian Province). With a 1 ℃ increment in mean annual temperature, the > 0 ℃ accumulative temperature increased by 285-402 ℃·d, and its duration increased by 7-18 d. The accumulative temperature of the daily temperature > 0 ℃ in all seasons showed an increasing trend, except that in Shandong Province which had a decreasing one in summer. In 2070, the accumulative temperature of daily temperature > ℃ would be 6831.4-8585.6 ℃·d, with an increment of 283.5-1803.8 ℃·d. Except Shandong, the provinces in East China would have a mean daily temperature > 0 ℃ in the whole year. In order to adapt these changes, increasing multiple cropping indices, strengthening monitoring forecast of diseases, insect pests and weeds, and enhancing the application of advanced technologies were recommended.

Key words: Allelochemical, Phenolic acids, Weed-suppressive effect, Orthogonally gyral regression design