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• 技术与方法 • 上一篇    

基于马尔柯夫模型的怒江流域中段植被动态变化预测

李晖1,2;白杨3;杨树华2,4;朱雪1;赵凯1   

  1. 1云南大学城市建设与管理学院, 昆明 650091;2云南大学生命科学学院, 昆明 650091;3中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100085;4云南大学生态学与地植物学研究所, 昆明 650091
  • 收稿日期:2008-06-03 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-02-10 发布日期:2009-02-10

Prediction of vegetations dynamic changes in central Nujiang watershed based on Markov process model.

LI Hui1,2;BAI Yang3;YANG Shu-hua2,4;ZHU Xue1;ZHAO Kai1   

  1. 1College of Urban Construction and Administration, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;2School of Life Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;3State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100085, China;4Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
  • Received:2008-06-03 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-02-10 Published:2009-02-10

摘要: 运用GIS、RS和GPS技术,采用1994和2004年2个时期的TM影像建立了植被分类系统,分析了2个时期的植被景观格局特征及其变化,并利用马尔柯夫模型,对未来该区域植被景观的动态变化进行了预测。结果表明,怒江流域中段植被景观以灌草丛为基质,其他景观类型镶嵌于其中。1994—2004年,各种植被景观类型之间发生转移最多的是在灌草丛、半湿润常绿阔叶林和针阔混交林之间。变化最大的是海拔较低的灌草丛和半湿润常绿阔叶林等;海拔较高的针阔混交林、寒温性针叶林等的变化均不明显。结果预示,未来10年,人为干扰对整个流域植被演替的影响将进一步加强,灌草丛、寒温性针叶林等面积不断增加,半湿润常绿阔叶林和中山湿性常绿阔叶林面积不断减少,景观整体趋于破碎化,研究区的生态环境受到人类活动严重影响。

关键词: 水稻, 等基因系, 植株形态, 竞争, 化感作用

Abstract: By using GIS, RS and GPS techniques and the TM images of 1994 and 2004 , the changes of vegetation landscape patterns in central Nujiang watershed in 1 994〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2004 were studied, and the prediction of the changes in ne xt ten years was made by using Markov process model. The results showed that the matrix of the la ndscape in study area was composed of shrub and grass, with other landscape patc hes embedded. In 1994〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2004, the most transfers among landscape types were betwe en shrub-grass, semi-humid evergreen broadleaved forest, and coniferous-broad leaved mixed forest. The greatest change occurred in shrub-grass and semi-humid e vergreen broadleaved forest at low elevation, while no obvious change was observed in coniferous-broadleaved mixed forest and cold temperate coniferous forest at high elevation. It was predicted that in the next ten years, the influence of hu man interference on the vegetation succession in the whole watershed would be fu rther increased, the areas of shrub-grass and cold temperate coniferous forest would increase while those of semi-humid evergreen broadleaved forest and humid evergreen broadleaved forest would decrease, the landscape as a whole would be fr agmented, and the regional eco-environment would be seriously affected.

Key words: Rice, Isogenic lines, Plant morphology, Competition, Allelopathy