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用GARP生态位模型预测刺萼龙葵在中国的潜在分布区

钟艮平1,2;沈文君2;万方浩2;王进军1   

  1. 1西南大学植物保护学院重庆市昆虫学及害虫控制工程重点实验室, 重庆 400716; 2中国农业科学院植物保护研究所植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室, 北京100094
  • 收稿日期:2008-03-07 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-01-10 发布日期:2009-01-10

Potential distribution areas of Solanum rostratum in China: A prediction with GARP niche model.

ZHONG Gen-ping1,2;SHENG Wen-jun2;WAN Fang-hao2;WANG Jing-jun1   

  1. 1Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China; 2Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2008-03-07 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-01-10 Published:2009-01-10

摘要: 检疫性杂草刺萼龙葵(Solanum rostratum)近年来扩散蔓延到中国华北地区,利用刺萼龙葵在原产地和其他入侵地的分布和14个环境变量,运用GARP生态位模型结合地理信息系统(GIS)对刺萼龙葵在中国的潜在分布区进行了预测,对环境图层的刀切法结果表明, 7个环境变量能提高预测的准确率,适合性卡平方一尾测验表明所建立的模型具有显著的统计学意义,预留数据的受测者工作曲线(ROC)检测表现出很好的预测能力,中国所有已知分布均被正确预测。刺萼龙葵在中国的潜在分布区极广,可以分布在除西藏、青海、海南及两广南部外的其他地区,尤其在华中、华北及华东地区的适生的可能性最高,由此刺萼龙葵可能进入一个危险的快速扩散阶段,应当引起相关部门的重视。

关键词: 景观格局, 景观变化, 泰山, 人为干扰

Abstract: In recent years, quarantine weed Solanum rostratum has being spread to North China. Based on the distribution characteristics of S. rostratum in its native and invaded areas, and by using 14 environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of S. rostratum in China were predicted by the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) niche model combining with Geographic Information System (GIS). The results from jackknife operation indicated that 7 environmental variables could improve the accuracy of the prediction. The one-tailed goodness-of-fit χ2-statistics was employed to test the significance of the model, which indicated that all of our predictions were highly significant. Moreover, the Receive Operation Curve (ROC) test by using leaving-aside data indicated the good performance of our model, and all the known distribution points in China were all correctly predicted. The potential distribution areas of S. rostratum included whole China except Tibet, Qinghai, and south Guangdong and Guangxi, and the Central, North, and East China had high suitability. S. rostratum would probably enter its hazard’s rapid-spread period, and the related departments should pay more attentions to this danger weed.

Key words: Landscape pattern, Landscape change, Taishan Mountains, Anthropogenic disturbances