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基于GARP模型的紫茎泽兰空间分布预测——以云南纵向岭谷为例

李双成;高江波   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-06 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-09-10 发布日期:2008-09-10

Prediction of spatial distribution of Eupatorium adenophorum Sprengel based on GARP model: A case study in Longitudinal RangeGorge Region of Yunnan Province.

LI Shuang-cheng;GAO Jiang-bo   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2007-12-06 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-09-10 Published:2008-09-10

摘要: 紫茎泽兰入侵会挤占其他物种的生存空间,降低生物多样性和生态系统生产力,带来诸多负面生态效应。尽早了解其入侵区域及其潜在扩散区域,对于合理估测其危害并采取正确的应对措施具有重要意义。利用云南纵向岭谷区紫茎泽兰的分布及其环境因子数据,通过GARP模型预测了紫茎泽兰的潜在入侵区域。结果表明:(1)研究区的南部是紫茎泽兰最主要的适生区域,除个别地点外,基于GARP的紫茎泽兰适宜分布指数绝大部分在0.5以上;研究区的北部由于地势高和气温低,除一些河谷地段外,紫茎泽兰生长的适宜度较小,适宜分布指数一般在0.5以下。(2)人工神经网络模拟结果与GARP模型基本一致,表现出南部显著高于北部的空间分布特征,在南部的一些局部高山地区,也不适宜紫茎泽兰生长和分布。北部地区除一些河流的谷底由于海拔较低,适宜紫茎泽兰生长外,大部分生境不适宜紫荆泽兰生长。

关键词: 白僵菌油剂, 超低容量, 生物多样性

Abstract: The invasion of Eupatorium adenophorum Sprengel may occupy the living space of other plant species, reduce the native biodiversity and ecosystem productivity, and cause serious ecological consequences. To reasonably estimate the potential hazards of this invasion and adopt corresponding measures, it’s necessary to investigate the invaded region and potential distribution of the weed. Based on the distribution data of E. adenophorum and related environmental factors in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region of Yunan Province, and by using Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) model, the potential distribution of the weed was predicted. The results showed that the main suitable area for E. adenophorum was the south part of the study region, where the suitable distribution index was above 0.5, except for some specific sites. Due to the high elevation and low air temperature, the suitable distribution index in the north part of the region, except some valleys, was much lower. The modeling results of artificial neural network were basically consistent with the GARP model, showing a higher suitable distribution index in the south than in the north part. Some mountainous areas in the south part and most areas in the north part of the region were not suitable for the growth of E. adenophorum.

Key words: Beauveria bassiana oil formulation, Ultra low volume, Biological diversity