关键词: 生态动力预报, 物候学, 数值天气预报, 数理逻辑, 模式识别

Abstract: An assessment indicator system of regional ecological security was set up based on Pressure-State-Response Model. Entropy was used to determine the weights of assessment indicators, which avoided the uncertainty in estimating the weights subjectively. The standards of security assessment indictors were established, the correlation degree of ecological security in Chongqing was calculated by gray correlation analysis, and then, an assessment of Chongqing urban ecological security was made. The assessment result of the urban ecological security by the method of entropy-weighted gray correlation analysis was identical with actual situation, suggesting that this method offered a new means to quantitatively assess regional ecological security and had certain practical value and popularization meaning.

Key words: Ecological dynamic forecasting, Phenology, Numerical weather prediction, Mathematical logic, Pattern recognition