关键词: 生态模型, 灵敏度分析, 局部灵敏度分析, 全局灵敏度分析, 空间直观景观模型

Abstract: The study on the correlations between grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2005 and seventy-four characteristic indices of atmospheric circulation showed that the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang had a close relationship with atmospheric circulation. The strength of North African subtropical high, northern extend of North African subtropical high, area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, zonal index over Asia, strength of India-Burma trough, and frequency of cold-air intrusion into China were selected as the key indices related to the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang. North African subtropical high mainly affected the rainfall in April-June, which in turn, affected the development of grasshopper eggs and nymphs, and thus, the grasshopper occurrence. With 39 characteristic indices of atmospheric circulation as prediction variables, and through stepwise regression, four prediction models were constructed to forecast the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang.

Key words: Ecological model, Sensitivity analysis, Local sensitivity analysis, Global sensitivity analysis, Spatially explicit landscape model